With the strikes on Israel by Iran being touted as the precursor to a war involving the US, Russia and a terrifying low nuclear threshold in Israeli doctrine, panic is in the air.
Here is a quick post explaining why I think this is not - yet - World War Three.
If you are short on time - the ball is in Israel’s court, and everything depends on whether they keep to limits which appear to have been set out by the United States itself - including on the Iranian missile and drone attacks.
A CALIBRATED RESPONSE
A report in the UK's "Financial Times" appeared shortly before the initial wave of Hezbollah strikes began. It was titled "Iran signals ‘calibrated’ retaliation to Israeli strike" and was published on April 12th, 19:41 hours BST.
Following the first strikes by Hezbollah on April 12th, Iran launched drones and missiles on Israel the next day, on the evening of Saturday 13th April.
Captain Haddock describes the calibration of Iran’s attack by the USA here in this video.
US-IRANIAN BACK CHANNEL
The Financial Times report references a "US-Iran back channel" via Oman. CIA director William Burns was in the Middle East last week.
From the FT, published hours before the strikes were launched.
Iran has signalled to allies and western nations that it will retaliate against a suspected Israeli air strike on its Damascus consulate in a “calibrated” manner to keep an all-out regional conflict at bay, according to officials briefed on the talks.
Calibrated by whom?
Tehran is unlikely to target Israeli diplomatic facilities in the region, said an official briefed on talks between Iran and Oman, the Gulf state that has often facilitated back-channel diplomacy between Tehran and Washington.
The CIA signed it off?
US intelligence on any impending attack appears to be detailed and specific, according to the officials briefed on the situation, giving Israel a window to prepare its defences.
CIA director William Burns travelled to the Middle East on the weekend of April 5th. Rumour has it he was involved in the Oman exchange, with the Kingdom being the intermediary between Washington and Tehran in this process of “calibration”. The point of this process was to avoid a wider war.
Israel's attack a "casus belli" - Iran's response legitimate
The Secretary General of the UN has restated that Israel's attack on the Iranian consulate is a violation of international law, with the Russian ambassador to the UN Nebenzia saying it is a clear "casus belli" established under international norms.
Why this is not WW3
I do not think this is World War Three.
I agree with the idea that the last thing Biden needs is a war in an election year. The FT report has been echoed by Reuters, Politico etc. It strongly suggests the US accepted Iran had to retaliate, and agreed limits to this - to avoid a large scale war.
According to the RAND corporation, Iranian de facto ally Russia does not want a war either. RAND published this two days ago. Russia has not condemned Iran’s retaliation, with Nebenzia telling the UN the West operates a double standard:
“Because for you, everything that concerns Western missions and Western citizens is sacred and must be protected.
But when it comes to other states, their rights, including the right to self-defense, and their citizens, it's different, as you like to say.”
He is right, and the “rules based order” is at stake here too. Support for Israeli escalation is to dissolve the sovereign immunity of diplomatic missions - as well as to risk the world itself.
The wild card here is Israel. Will Netanyahu play the game, or will he ignore this calibration and go for broke?
Israel cannot "win" alone against Hezbollah, never mind Iran.
To provoke a war is to try to force the US to intervene in Israel's defence. With the Samson Option in place, and with a fifty year history of "nuclear blackmail", Israel has form in compelling the US to support it militarily against the threat of first use of nuclear weapons.
For an overview of Israeli nuclear blackmail in securing US support, and on its insane “Samson Option” doctrine of first use of nuclear weapons, see here:
THE GAME OF CALIBRATION
I think “calibration” is the game here. So far, it has worked.
We are now waiting to see what a "messianic dictatorship with nuclear weapons" will do next.
That was how former Israeli PM Ehud Olmert described the Netanyahu regime.
Biden - US "Will not participate" in war with Iran
My feeling is that Israeli influence is not what it was, and that the US "ironclad" commitment to Israeli defence is as substantial as that to Ukraine's victory.
How can I be so confident?
Biden has told Netanyahu that the US will not participate in a war with Iran.
Nuclear threat
I think Israel will do something, which is not nothing, but it will not provoke a catastrophic response from an Iran with a long standing strategic partnership with North Korea, which may also explain the US' hesitancy to go to war with a potentially nuclear Iran. The North Koreans have solid fuel hypersonic missiles now.
The nuclear threat is not limited to that represented by Israel. This parity of capability is one stabilising factor. It may introduce an unusual element of restraint in the Netanyahu cabinet, whose strategy has for decades been one of escalation to ensnare the US in a wider war favouring Zionist ambitions.
You can read more about that here
If Israel does not move to trigger a regional war, this may signal the beginning of the end of its strategy of escalation. This would be very welcome news to the sanity-based community, and would represent a victory for life and the politics of a better future.
For the world order, the consequences of the absence of this war will be as profound as those of its presence.
Note
The nuclear threat from Iran via North Korea has been tracked by US Congressional reports for over a decade.
Link above is to a 2014 CRSR report updated in 2016 and is archived here.
I read your sentence about Biden not needing a war in an election year. Historically though haven't wartime presidents done quite well in an election year?
I really wouldn't put it past him and his handlers to start one just to get him over the finish line and keep Trump out of the WH.
Good Sir, your Optimism is very treasonous to my most humble DOOM-wares! 😉
Something to consider:
The 'Israelis' have been brought up to believe themselves to be 'Supermen'... those for whom the standard rules of law, normativity & ethics, writ large, do not apply. So they are always able (in their mind) to inflict the untermensh Arab & Persian savages with 'whatever it is they wish.'
Bombing an embassy? YES WE CAN!
So this Strike by the Iranians into Military bases in the Negev & the Golan... is Soul-Crushing for such alleged 'Supermen'... & they will demand Blood & Gore from Netanyahu & cronies. Enter the 'over-escalation' move & WW III as a result of said Apartheid, supremacist Madness.
In general, Logic is trumped by Values at the end of the Day.