In this post I will explain why winning is for losers under a liberal democratic system - and that this system itself is losing the battle against reality.
This system will unite to prevent anyone remotely illiberal from exercising power, especially when they win elections.
This is what is happening now in the Netherlands.
Before you ragequit in a doom spiral, know this: the Liberal system is finished and anything it does now simply demonstrates this point.
I have written this post in three parts. It will make you look like a smartypants in those heated arguments about Dutch coalitions we are all so keen to win.
If you don’t care about Dutch politics, skip to part 3.
The first part is all facts and context about the Dutch elections.
The second is a brief reminder of a Liberal assassin.
The third places the Dutch situation in the wider context - of the death of Liberalism.
I briefly go on about Bonapartism at the end, which to old hands here will be no surprise.
Once again, this is something I learned from Kevin Michael Grace.
If you don’t know what it is, have a look at “Bonapartism” on my homepage. It’s what comes after Liberalism.
Contents
Dutch Elections - The Wilderness Years
Why The New Dutch PM is the Old One
Why there will be no Wilders government
Liberal Assassination: The Murder of Pim Fortuyn
No Government is Normal in the Netherlands
The Liberal Paradox - What Has to Happen
The Fantasy Ideology Is Dying
AGAINST THE DOOM PILL
Liberalism is Finished Either Way
PART ONE
Dutch Elections - The Wilderness Years
Hooray! Geert Wilders won the election in the Netherlands!
He will never form a government and will not be Prime Minister, despite coming first.
This is because when anyone illiberal comes first, the winner is the one who comes second.
Wilders is “far right”, which means “illiberal”. He wants to take the steps necessary to halt mass migration, which involve
leaving the EU
contravening the Dutch liberal constitution
Obviously anyone who wants to do anything to save their nation has to abandon the rule-of-lawyers model, in order to restore a rule of law which actually favours the native population.
Wilders wants to do this, and so he will not be allowed to do so. Here is why he is going into the Wilderness and not ever into power.
Who will be the new Dutch Prime Minister? - The Old One.
The leader of the party with the most seats becomes the Prime Minister, except this time. Wilders has won 37 seats (76 needed to rule). He is not a liberal and so will not be allowed to do anything.
Despite no longer being VVD party leader, Mark Rutte will continue as "caretaker" Prime Minister until 2024 (at least). This arrangement may continue indefinitely.
Rutte has been in power since 2010.
This means the VVD and its leader Mark Rutte stay "in power" as long as they refuse to work with Wilders.
A Wilders Government?
Reuters' muted report said that Wilders is likely to try to form a government with two "right wing" parties.
One is the VVD, which was in power until today. The VVD now has 24 seats.
The other is another brand new party, which has taken 20 seats.
It is anti-immigrant and is called the "New Social Contract" (NSC).
To rule, Wilders needs over 75 seats out of 150. People are talking about this team-up because the numbers work, giving a working majority of 81. So what's the problem?
No one on the "right" will work with Wilders
Neither the VVD nor the NSC will work with Wilders.
The New Social Contract would be the most obvious partner with 20 seats to Wilders' 37. Why would an anti-immigrant party not work with Wilders?
AP reported last week that the leader of the NSC Pieter Omtzigt's refused to consider working with Wilders - as this would gainsay the principles of the Dutch constitution
He said that Wilders’ anti-Islam policies go against freedoms of expression and religion that are enshrined in the Dutch constitution.
One of Omtzigt’s policy pledges is to create a constitutional court in the Netherlands that would be able to rule on government plans before they become law.
Answering questions submitted by voters to Dutch broadcaster NOS, Omtzigt was asked if he 100% ruled out working with Wilders’ PVV party.
“The PVV rules itself out,” he answered.
Omtzigt is in favour of the "rule by lawyers" which consolidates Liberal rights-based "justice".
He is seeking to establish a constitutional court to throttle future government policies (the illiberal ones) with lawfare.
He is a liberal. He sensibly describes himself as a “centrist”. Using the law to prevent popular policies is the essence of Sensible Centrism.
The VVD rules out working with Wilders
The leader of the “outgoing” VVD - the “centre-right” liberal party, said on the day after the election that she would not enter a coalition with Wilders.
Dilan Yeşilgöz, the leader of the biggest center-right party in the Dutch parliament, ruled out joining a potential Geert Wilders-dominated coalition but said she could support such a government from the sidelines.
Oh? Support from the sidelines? For what?
“But we will make a center-right cabinet possible. We will support constructive proposals, so it is a form of tolerance,”
Is this good news for Wilders? According to him, no.
Probably because the "center-right" means a minority government without him.
Politico’s report continued
Wilders quickly reacted on X, formerly Twitter, saying VVD’s decision, taken before the start of coalition negotiations, was “very disappointing.”
“Very unfortunate. I hope they change their minds because governing is better than tolerating,”
Wilders is not getting any help from his “conservative” friends. Bear in mind too that he is not a nationalist. Why not?
Wilders is not pro-nation. He is anti-Islam. Nationalism is for things, he is against them. These two things are not the same. He is also childless.
Possible partners - if Wilders stops being Wilders
The BBB (farmer citizen movement) has 7 seats and will work with him - provided he stops being Geert Wilders, as Reuters reported:
Among smaller parties, the Farmer-Citizen Movement (Boer Burger Beweging – BBB) said it would be willing to govern with Wilders. Leader Caroline van der Plas...told reporters on Thursday she expected Wilders would drop the most objectionable parts of his party's platform in order to win support.
"Wilders has promised to be milder, now he has to show it," she said.
This is less demanding than the concessions required by the self-confessed centrist Omtzigt, who has also made it clear that his 20-seat NSC will only support Wilders if he becomes indistinguishable from "centre-right" liberals.
Another potential Wilders' partner, New Social Contract (NSC), an upstart party which took 20 seats on a reform platform, has said Wilders would have to drop threats to leave the European Union and change clauses of the Dutch constitution forbidding religious discrimination before it could consider cooperation.
"I dare to say this is not going to be the most easy formation we've ever had," NSC leader Pieter Omtzigt said, adding there was no guarantee he would be willing to join a coalition under Wilders either.
So the only conditions for a possible coalition are to drop any measures towards meaningful change.
This is not going to happen. Wilders will be called anti-Dutch, and a government will be formed without him on this basis.
Perhaps a “far right” outrage will occur which the True Dutch will rally to condemn in an inspirational display of Our Values. I would not rule that out.
PART TWO - LIBERALISM KILLS
Anti Immigration Leader Assassinated in 2002
Friendly reminder that gay anti-immigration politician Pim Fortuyn was assassinated nine days before the election in 2002.
He was killed by a social justice warrior who was concerned about Fortuyn's "threat to minorities" - as Fortuyn was rather illiberal in that sense.
Volkert van der Graaf got 18 years for this, but was released in 2014.
You get three election cycles inside in the liberal Netherlands for murdering anti-immigrant leaders.
PART THREE - LIBERAL ENDGAME
There may be no new government (this is normal)
Wilders will not lead the Netherlands.
Note that the outgoing coalition government of Mark Rutte’s VVD was only formed in January 2022, after 300 days without one. This broke the previous record set by the Rutte government before it, which from 2017 took a record 200+ days to agree.
If it took a technocratic liberal with the power of the Regime behind him seven and then nine months to cooperate with fellow liberals to form the last two Dutch governments, it would be miraculous to see a swift step change involving a party condemned for its illiberalism as unconstitutional by its closest potential ally to form a government.
If this does happen then it is very big news. It won’t. Here is why.
The Liberal Paradox
The question here is the universal one: that the solution to the problems of liberalism cannot be solved within its own belief system.
This is apparent everywhere in the liberal West. Where the Right wins, as in Spain, the second-placed Left wins - to preserve democracy.
In the Netherlands, the second-placed Jan Timmermans is pushing for a government led by his Green-Left party - to preserve democracy.
The right-liberal parties refuse to cooperate with the illiberal Wilders. They may form a government with Timmermans, the former EU Green Deal commissioner, again to save Liberal democracy.
Liberalism has to go, its belief system prevents the correction of the crisis caused by these same beliefs. For example, the European Human Rights Convention must be abandoned or abolished by any European nation willing to stop mass migration. Rights-based fantasies animate the legalism of the Liberal idea.
The Fantasy Ideology and Reality
This is an ideological matter, and no liberal party (including the British Conservative Party) is willing to take this step.
If they do not, their promises to "stop the boats" or reverse mass migration are simply lies because deportations are inhibited by these laws and the simple but necessary actions to halt the industrial supply chain cannot be taken within this legal straitjacket.
We have the rule of lawyers, not the rule of law. Those lawyers are Liberal activists.
A significant change would be a practical move towards the acknowledgement of this reality: that Liberalism has failed and it cannot be fixed.
It is time to ditch it and the rights-based fantasy ideology upon which it is based.
Parties and “populists” are demonstrating this fact, which is established in an increasing proportion of electorates. “Far right” just means “illiberal”.
AGAINST THE DOOM PILL
There is another paradox which should prevent you from falling into DOOM and GLOOM. This is the inescapable reality - that whatever the Liberals do, Liberalism is finished.
The establishment cannot hold the line indefinitely without further demonstrating the illegitimacy of a system whose policies are detrimental to their own peoples.
It is a paradox. They are damned if they admit it, and damned if they don’t. Both options lead to the end of liberalism.
It is either replaced as an admitted failure or it becomes so overly repressive and undemocratic that the fact it has turned into its opposite becomes impossible to deny for the majority.
Even if they cling on to power, they cannot call this “liberal democracy”. It becomes the rule of a self-appointed elite driven by their belief - in their own beliefs.
These beliefs are supplied as the reason for the ruin of your life.
Liberal Despotism
Democracy is despotism these days. The state has lost the trust of the people and its legitimacy is further undermined by its incapacity or unwillingness- and I think it the latter - to act in the interests of its own populations.
The change to something beyond the post-Soviet liberal settlement is in the process of happening.
What is so far absent is the acceptance by many in the political class that this is the case. Obviously most of their careers are staked on pretending the ship is not sinking, so here we are.
Champions of the people will emerge to take advantage of the obvious fact that the Liberal system is corrupt and is the enemy of sanity.
These champions may be good, bad, or like the curate’s egg - “good in parts”. Anyone with a modicum of sense can see this opportunity. Self-declared dictators of the will of the people are coming, and they will win.
I agree with your analysis. Dutch politics is a factional mess. They seem to like it that way. I prefer the clear winner approach myself.
As for the death of liberalism, it cannot come soon enough. I suspect Ireland is on an accelerated timeline compared to us as a result of the small population. We witnessed it recently. Senior ministers condemning the "hard right" for being angry on Dublin's streets while no mention of young children being attacked by foreign men.
Not a situation that can last.
> It is either replaced as an admitted failure or it becomes so overly repressive and undemocratic that the fact it has turned into its opposite becomes impossible to deny for the majority.
Never bet against the majority's capacity for denial. We're talking millennia of evolutionary selection for this trait.