The news has been acting up something terribly of late. Here is my attempt to summarise the clown-car crash of current affairs. It is long, but I am not to blame for all this carry-on.
In place of a few soundbites I have chosen three major news events to analyse in depth. I begin with the crisis in the Middle East, moving to the lawfare against Trump and ending with a look at how things are going in Ukraine.
These stories illustrate in different ways the collision of hard reality with ideological fairytales. In brief, the US Regime is run by people whose only power is to insist that their fantasies are in fact your reality.
This argument with reality is being lost. The result is paralysis. Will this frozen moment melt away - or shatter?
Reality is returning in spite - and because - of the actions of the factions of fantasy.
IN THIS SERIES
Part One - A Pregnant Pause
What is the Regime and why is it paralysed?
News and in-depth analysis- The Suez Moment - Power in Paralysis
Part Two - Trumped Up Charges (coming soon)
News - Trump Banned From Ballot - “Democracy” = The Rule Of Lawyers
Part Three - Project Russia (coming later)
News and analysis on the war in Ukraine
Today’s long post argues how this regime is losing at home and abroad - as a direct result of its dedication to the politics of fantasy.
What is the Regime?
“The Regime” is one name the Cool Kids give to our ruling ideology. Politicians, lawyers, academics, celebrities and corporate leaders may all be regime loyalists. These people derive profit and power from their cooperation with a system which has corrupted our democracies entirely.
The chief trick of The Regime is to insist that it is defending everything that it is destroying.
Is this Regime all-powerful?
No. The news today illustrates the limits of power. Mass society (globalism) is too complex too be entirely dirigible. Secondly, the Regime’s aims are so obscene they must be described as their opposites. This creates an inherent fault line between fantasy (propaganda) and reality (the product of Regime actions - not its words).
Is the Regime faltering?
Yes. One further theme here is the impact of incompetence. We can see that this mismanaged imperial power is failing to contend with mounting complexity.
Regime policies have weakened its ability to project power at home and abroad. Competent personnel have been replaced by deranged freaks and resentful midwits. A sort of policy of universal vengeance upon reality is shared by the many factions of grievance which now staff our institutions.
Desperate measures are applied to shore up a failing system by people whose superpower is to pull the wool over their own eyes and declare the world blind.
So why is the Regime addicted to fantasy?
If the ruling elite were honest about their intentions they would be universally despised. The Regime is a corrupt tyranny whose factional disputes result in our news.
The news at present shows a paralysis of imperial power. That power still exists and is real outside the news, but it cannot be exercised efficiently because the Regime is itself inefficient.
Why is the Regime now paralysed?
In a word: panic. Failure has intensified factional competition. Afghanistan failed, Project Lockdown is discredited, Project Russia has failed, Project Ukraine has failed, and another disaster which the US appears powerless to manage is unfolding in and around Israel. Net Zero is slowing down, the unipolar global system is being replaced.
Narrative breakdown
The chief power of the Regime is to manufacture a false reality. As Tucker Carlson points out, the narrative of the Regime is reminiscent of insanity: it accuses any “enemy” of doing what the Regime is doing itself.
What will happen next?
When saying cannot shape reality any longer, the Regime will try its hand at doing. This means an attempt to force compliance. Carlson thinks this will lead to more force. I think this will lead to more paralysis.
Why Is Frank so Optimistic?
It is cool to say optimism is treason. I am too cool to say things can only get better.
Nevertheless, the Regime is unused to having to do things - relying instead on its power to say things and insist they are now real.
This moment reveals the limits of make-belief. The many crises created by this Regime are simply too obvious to be talked away. Yet the Regime is not well practised in doing anything but staging fakes. Real action is beyond its expertise. This shortfall should make you - if not optimistic - then realistic about its capacity to realise its desires. This will lead to further failure.
Everything the Regime does from now on will discredit it.
The mask is off, and the Regime has a face which is both hard to look at - and impossible to forget.
We live in a time of revelation, which is another word for “apocalypse”. What is being revealed is the true nature of power. This is not much of a surprise to the people who have been on the receiving end of it.
This revelation is most distressing to the true believers, to those so utterly seduced by the trappings of evil that they have come to believe themselves the champions of liberty, of justice and of the Good.
It is they who are turning to stone before our very eyes.
SUEZ CRISIS 2.0
US Power in Paralysis - Israel Gambled - and Lost?
On the 15th of December, a few tribesmen from Yemen got into a fibreglass boat powered by outboard motors. They motored out into the Bab El Mandeb - one of three regional choke points for seaborne trade - and shot at a cargo ship.
One rocket plopped into the sea, another bonked a shipping container which fell overboard. A small fire was reported on deck.
Following this, most Western shipping halted all passage through the Suez canal, taking the alternative route around the bottom of South Africa instead.
As the captain of one such ship memed it,
This meme shows the immediate impact of global merchant marine traffic being re-routed around the horn of Africa. Long delays and far higher costs will result. The Suez canal was built to shorten this journey. A few Houthis in a dinghy have put a stop to that.
What is the point of the US Navy?
The US is a sea power. It has a vast navy which safeguards global trade routes. These routes have three major pinch points beyond the Americas: the straits of Hormuz off Iran, the Malacca Straits in the South Pacific, and the Suez Canal.
It is amusing to point out to libertarians that global “free trade” is vouchsafed by an enormous taxpayer funded guarantor in the shape of the United States Navy.
Why has the US Navy failed to secure Suez?
Insurance clauses are invalidated by “force majeure”. War is such a force. A dent in one metal container caused by a $500 RPG has halted Suez traffic by giants such as UK oil giant BP, and the shipping giants Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd.
This is one instance of the butterfly and the hurricane: a tiny action leading to vast consequence in a staggeringly complex system. Yes, the threat is real, but no - no ships have been sunk (nor are likely to do so).
Risk here is that appraised in insurance premiums - not one of military force.
The Houthis and the Iranians know well this weakness of the US backed maritime trade system, and they have successfully lamped Goliath with a cheap and effective pebble.
US Coalition of the Unwilling
The United States Government responded in traditional fashion. It sought to assemble a “coalition” of its subject states to present a united front against a few cheap aerial jalopies and some fuzzy haired men in flipflops with a cheap speedboat.
The effort was termed “Operation Prosperity Guardian”. It was announced on December 18th by the masked clown Lloyd Austin, who is the US Secretary of Defence.
Whose Prosperity?
This title alone would be sufficient to enrage any sane European, given that the continental economy has been wrecked by direct order of the same United States which now seeks to “guard” its “prosperity”.
If you would like to know more about how the United States used the Ukraine war to destroy European economic independence, see here:
The coalition instantly fell apart in clown-car fashion, with the Spanish, Italians and French immediately withdrawing. The reason was their reluctance to place their naval assets under US command - preferring instead a NATO structure.
A Botched Operation?
Shipping analyst site GCaptain suggests this operation may not mitigate the high war insurance costs caused by Houthi attacks, which in turn cannot be stopped and will not cease until the Israeli assault on Gaza ends. Further, its commentator wonders how long the US Navy can commit to keeping so many ships in the region.
Writing for GCaptain, Salvatore Mercogliano also points out that Maersk - the world’s largest shipping corporation - has signalled a return to Suez transits following the US Navy’s stated intervention. He asks
If the main beneficiary of the operation is one of the largest shipping corporations in the world, then there is a question of whose prosperity is Operation Prosperity Guardian truly guarding?
Mercogliano runs his own channel on YouTube called “What’s Going on With Shipping?” He fleshes out his question in this video, published on 28th December.
Current Sea Power in the region
Here is a map from Intelschizo, whose twitter account provides frequent updates to the concentration of naval power in the region.
The map below shows US, Chinese and Iranian naval vessels, along with those of the “Combined Maritime Force”. The CMF ins composed of 39 nations and includes the West, along with former allies such as Saudi Arabia, India, Turkey and even Yemen.
You can read the CMF’s WordPress site here.
Why does the CMF matter?
India’s navy has entered the fray under the aegis of this security agreement. This direct involvement shows the potential for this conflict to escalate beyond US/NATO control. India is not a NATO member, and is not a member of OP PROSPERITY GUARDIAN.
Here is another image from our helpful IntelSchizo, showing which nations are still involved in the US-led prosperity-guarding. These are
US, UK, Australia, Canada, Greece, Denmark, Netherlands, Norway, The Seychelles and Bahrain.
Note: Spain, Italy and France (flags pictured below) have all dropped out - being unwilling to commit to US naval leadership of their forces.
Where did this crisis come from?
The attacks are seen as a response to the destruction of Gaza and its population by the Israeli state. They are an escalation of a long standing maritime battle between Israel and Iran, which has seen both sides attack each other’s shipping for a number of years.
The recent attacks have largely been carried out by Ansur’Allah, a Zai’idi Shia faction in Yemen with some ties to Iran. Known as “The Houthis”, these tribesmen beat the Western-armed Saudi ground forces into retreat during an ongoing war which was sparked in 2014 by the toppling of former President Hadi’s government.
The Houthis have declared they will attack any shipping with ties to Israel, whilst leaving Russian shipping free to navigate the Suez canal. The group hijacked an Israeli-linked ship on the 20th of November in a helicopter assault captured here on video.
The group fired missiles and launched drones which were countered by the US Navy on December 23rd.
Despite US-led initiatives to secure the Suez and the surrounding region, the attacks have not ceased - and now include a direct strike on Israel.
The Houthis claimed responsibility on 26th December for a drone attack on the Israeli port of Eilat, with the British Royal Navy reporting another strike on Israeli-linked shipping off the coast of Yemen on the same day.
The Houthis have vowed to continue the attacks until Israel ceases its assault on Gaza.
Crisis Spreads to India
The shipping crisis continues, having spread with another attack to the Indian Ocean. This was attributed to Iranian drones.
The Indian navy has mobilised warships in response and has condemned Iran, which has denied any involvement.
The US also accused Iran of attacking the Israeli-linked vessel, the first occasion on which it has directly blamed Tehran for drone attacks on merchant shipping.
Iran has been using drones to attack shipping for several years. The War Zone has documented Iranian drone attacks on Israeli-linked merchant shipping since at least 2021.
Israel has also been launching attacks on Iranian shipping for years. The world is now paying attention. This low intensity warfare has become one of several currents beneath the surface which threaten to magnify this conflict into a regional - and even global - war.
A Multi-Front War?
The backlash to Israeli atrocities threatens to escalate the war beyond the borders of Israel.
Yoav Gallant, the misnamed Israeli army chief, said on Tuesday 26th December that Israel was
“coming under attack from seven theatres: Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Judea and Samaria [an Israeli term for the West Bank], Iraq, Yemen and Iran”
Gallant said without further explanation that
“We have already responded and taken action in six of these theatres”
As I have argued, escalation is the strategy of the Netanyahu government.
In brief, it seeks the destruction and/or transfer out of Israel of the Palestinian population. It cannot win the war which will result, and seeks to involve the US and its Western allies in the ensuing conflict with an enraged Islamic world.
Nuclear Blackmail
Israel has used “nuclear blackmail” before - in the 1973 Yom Kippur war and in 1991 in response to a scud missile attack by Saddam Hussein. This strategy - of threatening a nuclear response - has secured US military aid and involvement in the past.
You can read more on Israel’s insane nuclear doctrine here:
This strategy of escalation appears to be working. The Arab world, formerly locked in a bitter cold war with itself, seems to be uniting against Israel.
The Iranians appear to be brokering peace in Yemen between the “Houthis” and the Saudis. This is a clear sign as to how the Israeli atrocities are erasing old enmities in a new united - and dangerous - common front against the Zionist state headed by Netanyahu.
The final piece of the jigsaw is not yet fully in place: securing US military involvement in support of the Israeli government.
A Policy of Insanity
The Israeli cabinet contains extremists who wish to usher in armageddon, by destroying the third holiest site in Sunni Islam and building the jewish temple on its ruins.
This, they believe, will result in the coming of the jewish messiah.
Members of Netanyahu’s ruling coalition have twice called for the use of nuclear weapons on the population of Gaza.
You can read more about the strategy of escalation here
The Suez Moment
There has been talk of a new “Suez Moment”. What does this mean?
The 1956 Suez Crisis was the moment the United States chose to end the British as an imperial power.
This is important not for reasons of historical grievance - but because it was a choice freely taken. The US could have supported Britain against Nasser’s Egypt, or even stood aside - but it did not.
The last Suez crisis was the announcement of the new master in world affairs - the USA.
Since then the US has ruled Britain, Europe and the rest of the world it dominates as a sort of mercantile empire whose trade is guaranteed by military force.
This moment recalls Suez as it shows the limitations of that force to guarantee the revenues of empire.
BAD FOR BUSINESS
I have argued before that the current management is so bad for business that it will be replaced for this reason alone. It supplies further reasons - such as its reckless moves to sue for the seizure of Russian foreign reserves. This makes the dollar an unsafe haven for foreign investment, meaning that the actions of the US government are creating incentives to leave its trading and its financial system.
In provoking and supporting global conflicts the US empire is making its trade routes insecure. In propping up insane regimes such as that of Netanyahu it is visibly destabilising the world. In attempting to seize the dollar reserves of Russia it warns other countries of the same risk: that the US and its allies might simply steal their money.
These measures make attractive by comparison the land based trade routes of China, India, Pakistan and others, whilst also driving nations off the dollar.
The Empire is committing suicide.
At home, the use of lawfare simply discredits the US legal system.
In the military dimension, the US can no longer rely on threats to maintain order.
The US has lost every war in recent memory. Ukraine is lost, Afghanistan and Iraq and Syria were lost, and Libya is in ruins. The US government plainly wishes to distance itself from Netanyahu’s unspeakable atrocities, but it lacks the power (so far) to depose him.
It has lost the Saudis and the Syrians to Iran, and has destroyed European economic independence to maintain control in the region.
The Regime now sees calls for
A return to the two state solution in Palestine (Blinken)
Iran to be “blown off the map” (Lindsey Graham)
There is no coherent position nor a credible plan to do either. Blinken and Graham are fighting for their political lives. All the corrupt regime loyalists are terrified - of the outbreak of sanity which accompanies the revelation of the truth.
What Comes Next?
The truth here is that our political class is desperate to please its donors. The business of empire is severely unsettled by a regime which cannot execute its own policies, safeguard its own borders or shipping, nor rid itself of troublesome extremists such as Netanyahu.
The US military cannot fight and win a major war in the Middle East against Turkey, the Arab world and perhaps even Pakistan. This is a war which will scare even the military-industrial complex which usually welcomes them, as it cannot be safely contained.
Israel appears to be doomed by the design of its own leadership, whose gamble is to risk the life of the nation in order to bring the US to its rescue.
Israel lost the last war it had with Lebanon in 2008, and cannot fight on two fronts. With most of its forces engaged in the destruction of the southern city of Gaza, it has no spare military capacity to fight Hizbollah in Lebanon in the north.
With every day comes a new Israeli atrocity against Palestinians, aid workers, doctors and Christians - bombing churches and killing two women by sniper fire inside another.
The Muslim world is outraged by a visible policy of mass extermination and population transfer executed by the reckless regime of Netanyahu. His gambit is intentionally extreme - a maximalist position designed to spark fury and war.
The result has been international isolation and the migration of Israelis out of Israel. Nearly half a million Israelis - 5 percent of the total population - have left Israel since October 7th. The US has dialled back its commitment to Netanyahu, leaving him exposed in a failed gambit from which he cannot retreat.
OPINION - WHAT HAPPENS NOW?
So far this major war has not materialised.
The US State Department is briefing against Netanyahu, in a reversal of its former unqualified endorsement of his policies.
Foreign Affairs, the house magazine of the Deep State, has also been publishing premature obituaries of Netanyahu’s horrendous political life.
Yet the US has been incapable of persuading Netanyahu to go. His is a regime prepared to use nuclear weapons in “self defence” - to counter a threat they have been determined to create.
Blinken - the US Chief Diplomat - has twice bypassed Congress to supply arms to Israel. He is also due to make his fourth visit to Israel since October 7th next week. Blinken will likely make noises about Gaza - but the action which accompanies this shift will take place offstage.
Blinken has no power to change anything, and cannot even prevent his own boss from making cringe-inducing gaffes on the global stage.
There are sane men in Israel who are well placed to take over from Netanyahu. He is reluctant to end the war as he knows he will be ousted - and prosecuted. He has staked his career on the provocation of war and the destruction of peace and he has failed. His people are abandoning him.
The choice is stark: a major war with a nuclear dimension, or the end of Netanyahu’s career. There is sufficient sanity in the Regime to prefer the latter over the former, and I think some way will be found for Netanyahu to go. This will likely be cooked up by the only serious member of the Biden administration, CIA director William Burns.
I think Netanyahu is going to get “regime changed”.
You said The Regime is not all powerful. It reminds of two things. First, is the Lord of the Rings, where, at the Council of Elrond, the Folly of Wizards is to destroy the Ring...because the Enemy presumes that the Cool Kids think like he does, and would use the Ring as a weapon. In our case, The Regime thinks that we think like they do. We don't. That will be their downfall.
Second, a friend of mine, a combat veteran, is fond of saying "In all planning, it is important to understand that the enmy has a vote, and in this case we are the enemy.". Make your "vote" count.
>This shortfall should make you - if not optimistic - then realistic about its capacity to realise its desires. This will lead to further failure.
It does make me optimistic. My criticism of your optimism is strictly limited to your optimism about the quality (as shown by honesty) of ordinary people. There are lots of reasons to be optimistic but that's an area to be pessimistic: the quality of ordinary people is very bad and will continue to get worse (much worse) for the foreseeable future (100ish years).